Interview: Thomas Masuch, 4 November 2024
Arno Held, Managing Partner of AM Ventures, talks to the Formnext magazine about the current market situation in Additive Manufacturing.
What is the atmosphere in the AM world at the moment?
Arno Held: The current situation on the market appears to be somewhat better than in the first half of this year. The first board meetings have indicated a latent recovery. Customers are ordering again, financing rounds are being carried out, and company sales are also taking place again. While the level is still modest compared to previous years, it is starting to feel like a slight trend reversal so far in 2024.
Is the widespread pessimism in AM justified?
Arno Held: In my view, no. The pessimism stems primarily from the financial markets and is due to the fact that between 2020 and 2022, completely exaggerated expectations were created that have now been missed by a wide margin (as expected by industry insiders). If you ask me, however, the economic weakness of such companies has to do with global economic conditions. If you look at the specific applications and the customer structures of these firms, it is rather positive to see that dubious participants have left the table and our portfolio companies in particular are now primarily developing large-volume, high-value applications together with well-known organizations.
What are the reasons behind the somewhat subdued situation? Could it be that the overall AM market is developing at a slower pace than initially expected?
Arno Held: Of course, the number of bold experiments increased massively in the “boom” years. Not all the applications that have been hyped in recent years are really worthwhile, and not all promises that were made have been kept because they were overblown. Many of these experiments have now come to an end and are yielding valuable lessons, as well as free capacity that can now be put to good use.
Is the competitive situation (especially for European companies) getting tougher?
Arno Held: Yes, absolutely. There are currently around eight to ten times as many hardware manufacturers on the market as would be necessary. The vast majority of them are at a very immature stage and don’t have really effective applications. The level of competition will increase massively over the next 18 months, especially with rising cost pressure from very low-cost and highly innovative competitors from China, and that will lead to a market shakeout.
What opportunities are nevertheless arising for AM companies?
Arno Held: The industry is only now learning not to live on hype and advance payments for the future, and to think in terms of concrete, short-term business opportunities instead. The problem with AM technology, which can theoretically print anything, is that hardly any providers want to specialize in individual applications. However, it is precisely this specialization that is the key to success. Any company that manages to make an application its own and can defend it against the competition will emerge from this crisis as a winner.
FURTHER INFORMATION:
AM Ventures at the Formnext 2024: Hall 11.1, Booth D52
We have also discussed the current market situation with four other AM experts:
- Rainer Lotz, Renishaw: “The good long-term prospects are not at risk”
- Frank Carsten Herzog, HZG Group: „There is no reason for pessimis“
- Jurgen Laudus, Materialise Manufacturing: Big difference between prototyping and series production
- Rainer Gebhardt, VDMA: „More confident than the average“
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